Son and Kane lead % of goals scored above 'expected goals' in Europe since 2016

[sammyspurs]

The fact he has most goals and most assists in PL, in a team who barely dominate any game is a a clear indicator he's a good decision maker.

And we’ve come full circle
Kane has taken the most shots in the PL.
17 more than the next closest.

More shots equals more goals, that doesn’t make him clinical. As I said, if Salah and Vardy had taken 109 shots, Kane wouldn’t be top scorer.

 

[To Dare Is To Do.]

More shots equals more goals, that doesn’t make him clinical.

I'm not saying he's clinical just because he's scored more, the stat is comparing his goals vs expected goals.

 

[sammyspurs]

I'm not saying he's clinical just because he's scored more, the stat is comparing his goals vs expected goals.

Son trounces him in that graph
You stand by the conclusion that Son is a better finisher?

 

[To Dare Is To Do.]

Son trounces him in that graph
You stand by the conclusion that Son is a better finisher?

Yeah Son is a better finisher.

However Kane is better overall. Better passing, higher football IQ, and also better defensively.

 

[sammyspurs]

Yeah Son is a better finisher.

However Kane is better overall. Better passing, higher football IQ, and also better defensively.

Right so we should play Son as our main striker and he’d be world class?

 

[To Dare Is To Do.]

Right so we should play Son as our main striker and he’d be world class?

At our best this season, Kane showed his versatility by switching from CF to CAM at times; with Son making advanced runs.
I wouldn't change the nature of their partnership.

 

[sammyspurs]

At our best this season, Kane showed his versatility by switching from CF to CAM at times; with Son making advanced runs.
I would change the nature of their partnership.

You’d be happy to not use Kane as our striker and feel Son would score more goals than him up top?
Does this make Son a world class striker in your view?

 

[To Dare Is To Do.]

Sorry that was a typo, I meant:

I wouldn't change the nature of their partnership.

 

[sammyspurs]

Sorry that was a typo, I meant:

Not following.....you feel Son is batter in front of goal, and Kane is better behind him, but don’t want to swap?

 

[To Dare Is To Do.]

Not following.....you feel Son is batter in front of goal, and Kane is better behind him, but don’t want to swap?

I'm fine with Kane & Son playing the same positions as they have so far this season.
That's included Kane dropping deeper at times to give through ball to Son.

 

[sammyspurs]

I'm fine with Kane & Son playing the same positions as they have so far this season.
That's included Kane dropping deeper at times to give through ball to Son.

But despite Son trouncing Kane and Messi on your graph, you wouldn’t use him as our main striker

What’s the point in the graph then?

 

[sammyspurs]

Son is a more clinical finisher, but that doesn't mean he's a better CF than Kane. Kane has all round skills which you don't seem to appreciate.
Liverpool's LW and RW are more clinical finishers than their CF.

Just below world class = non appreciation?

I think the point has been made well about predictions and fantasy here.
You live in a world where Son is a better finisher than Messi.

I live on planet earth

 

[Kiwi]

Will they be able to fit all that on the trophy plaque though?

 

[To Dare Is To Do.]

Mate, you clearly don't understand xG and your posts in this thread have been a complete mess. I stopped adding disagrees after two posts because it started to seem mean. And I'm one of the people who don't dislike you.

Harsh on Sammy, but unfortunately, true.

 

[sammyspurs]

Mate, you clearly don't understand xG and your posts in this thread have been a complete mess. I stopped adding disagrees after two posts because it started to seem mean. And I'm one of the people who don't dislike you.

Xg is based on fantasy
That’s why Son is a “better finisher than Messi and Kane”

 

[Belgrano]

I've been talking about G/xG ratio as the gold standard metric of clinical finishing for years now. I'm glad other people, including journalists, are finally on board!

A few things I'd add based on a lot of preexisting knowledge about this stuff:
2016 is a particularly favourable cut-off for Son in a Son/Kane comparison. If you take it from the true start of Kane's career, the gap shrinks. But they still remain the two most clinical in Europe for 2014-now. Kane has never had a season in which he's underperformed his xG. Son has and so has Lewa. I think that consistency also has intrinsic value.

For me, at least, the eye test supports the G/xG in terms of those two being the most clinical finishers but I would have them a lot closer (approximately in line with the longer-term data). G/xG isn't infallible, of course, and is directly bounded in utility by the numerous limitations inherent in xG models. Nonetheless, it's definitely the stat that comes closest to capturing objective clinicalness in a single number.

This statistics compares actual number of goals scored and compares it to the 'expected goals' a player had. Expected goals is based on the difficulty of a goalscoring opportunity. A sitter is close to 1 xG, while a long range chance may be 0.1 xG.

1. This shows how clinical Son is, as he's miles out in front. Also shows how special Kane is by scoring 100+ goals and being above Messi. Looks 'world class' to me sammyspurs

2. Also a bit worrying that we seem to be relying on Son and Kane to convert chances that aren't necessarily clear cut. This is from 2016 to early 2021 so something for both Poch and Jose to reflect on, in terms of creativity of our midfield.

3. Expected goals aren't a perfect measure, so like all stats take it with a pinch of salt.

Looking at this chart, firstly it's interesting that data is shown for '20 of Europe' s best goalscorers'. How were these selected? Who was left out? It makes you wonder if there were some awkward data points that didn't fit the narrative.

Secondly if we are to believe '% over xG' or 'G/xG' is a good measure of goalscoring/finishing ability, this should meet the sniff test. So why is Aguero coming out as a bang average finisher? Not just average in this chart of top players, but average across the whole dataset that xG has been calculated on (presumably league-wide), since his goals scored barely exceed xG. Benzema is even worse. According to this, well below average as a 'finisher' compared to his peers.

How would you prove the validity of G/xG as a measure of intrinsic finishing ability? I don't think you can, as 'finishing ability' is subjective. There are so many variables in the xG model, and aspects of chance quality that are not captured. Maybe Son's outperformance is due to some quirk of when he chooses to shoot, or something about the type of chances he gets that is not captured by xG.

xG is interesting in quantifying the quality of chances created by teams, but when you get into these individual players metrics, you start to see some odd stuff.

 

[Belgrano]

Son has had insane over performances on his xG that put him as literally the best finisher in the world in the past few years.

Of course it can also be attributed to the fact that his chances are often 1v1s and how he gets into goal scoring chances with his pace and movement, but the overperformance is just too big. Other players are quicker and get just as good chances as him.

He has flaws but his finishing, work rate and movement is incredible. Underrated somehow, even by Spurs fans.

Son has become a good finisher. But these stats don't convince me he's been better than, for example, Messi or Aguero.