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Tactics TFC's Tactical Autopsy Thread
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Why are we conceding the same goals stats nerds?
View: https://x.com/reignolds17/status/1856060408076898418?s=61&t=lOJ_HDnbTWvSuVGs5km_Hg
View: https://x.com/reignolds17/status/1856060408076898418?s=61&t=lOJ_HDnbTWvSuVGs5km_Hg
Wow! That's a lot of crosses. Soon we might be at the level of David Moyes @ ManU.
Do any of these stats you keep posting help us to understand how much aimless crosses are contributing to us getting done on the break so surgically that we are giving up one of the highest xGs per chance?
I imagine sending everyone and their brother forward except for our 2 CBs also contributes to this as well as to the impressive attacking/possession stats posted previously...but I'll have to see more stats to know for sure.
Omnipresent issues for sure but for all that we still have the second best XG90 and second best XA90 (https://footystats.org/england/premier-league/xg) (or 3rd and 4th according to Understat EPL xG Table and Scorers for the 2024/2025 season | Understat.com) Even after the last 2-3 weeks of chaos.
They are better than last season. Which suggests something is going on on the training ground.
As I said, I think Ange's approach will almost always have inherent risk, but I do believe that those risk traits could be mitigated or managed better if we had better individual quality/depth (especially at each end) to compete with those that are clocking better metrics (City/Liverpool), Chelsea and Arse aren't but they've also got some better individuals and more risk averse structures.
More worrying for me lately is the bizarre counter intuitive selections and in game management, which have coincided with our underlying metrics going a bit bonky again.
Ok, but this both get to and completely misses my point. Our attack should be staterific considering we send every forward...why would this come as a surprise? But it's illusory, BC. Every team in the league could attack with 8 players...but they'd all get done on the break...especially if their main attacking threat is crosses.
Pep sends a shit ton forward but their passing and spacing protects...and what it doesn't they have their tactical fouling...and what passes that they have Walker as their safety valve (we use VDV for ours...when he's healthy considering his hammies have never had such a workout). But they don't send crosses as their main attacking threat...you know, pretty much a guaranteed loss of possession.
It doesn't have "inherent risk"...it's ALL risk, it's not an attribute...and not really intricate or clever...which is why we are being done by Ipswich.
So our fortunes would be improved by having better players? That's flippant but it gets to the point...every coaches plan would be improved by such. But more importantly, at Spurs, this is the level of player that we have, have always had, and will always have for the foreseeable. The ultimate point being the specific upside of what Ange has to offer seems very minimal seeing as his job was to improve what we had...if he can't do that the what justifies sinking more dough into him and his plans? Kind of a sunk cost at this point...
Suggests that there really is nothing underpinning plan A then, right?
This is me, first game in Poch's 3rd season when I realized his bumping up against his tactical limits was real. I started posting my doubts about this for Ange back last season around this time...it's not gotten any better. We are losing a lot...it's feast or famine...sure, we can score with the best of them against teams stupid enough to open up...but our play is inconsistent unlike the Poch times (which engendered supporter faith and justified investment).
I still think he should get the whole year and hope he does. That way there will be now doubt that whatever decision is taken is the right one. It's just pretty clear what that decision will be IMO.
Well, what we can say, is pretty much all of the goals we concede come from our right sided defenders not doing a good job (Porro, Romero & Johnson).
We consistently leave the player on the back post unmarked, and don't track late runners into the box.
That plus Udogie getting caught wrong side of his man occasionally, to allow the cross in the first place
Yep. It’s Johnson. He only ever jogs back. Never tracks his fullback with any conviction. No idea how the manager tolerates it.
Brilliant analysis BC, but (if we had better individual quality/depth) where does that leave us?
We wait for Ange to coach these inadequate players in how to play Ange-Ball better ?
We wait for Ange to realise he has to adjust his philosophy to best suit the players he has?
We wait for Enic to shovel shed loads of money to buy and give contracts to better players?
Yes McT, you’ve correctly identified one of football’s most prevalent conundrums. Good work.
All true, and nobody is saying Ange is Pep, but also true right now us and City are pretty close, points and metrics wise.
Over simplistic. Conte took little risk but we were still getting beat.
The fact that we have very good underlying defensive metrics suggests it’s not all risk that is being coached.
Not true. Poch had the best or second best team in the PL around 16-17 time in the context of the league at that time. And finished second best with it. There also wasn’t anything like the depth of quality of coach, players or recruitment at most clubs that there is now.
Ange is working in a much, much stronger PL.
And when that personnel advantage started to dissipate, so did Poch’s results.
I think, just like with Poch for example, better players will mitigate coached/tactical application. No guarantees it will win us the league, especially in this Pep era, but at the very least it could get us duking out the CL places again and doing it without parking busses and whatnot.
I don’t believe there’s a coach out there that could achieve any more with this bunch of meh footballers.
And so did I. And so did others. Well done us
Well, actually, some things have. We are conceding less XG and actual goals and scoring more and more XG. We are having more ball, and doing better things without it (PPDA)
Considering the quality player he has, let’s not totally diminish this achievement.
Well no. When Poch had quality players, the best CB’s the fastest FB’s, Wantama, Dembele, Eriksen, an Ali that actually produced stuff and we were the Kane team he was more consistent, even the periphery (the Moura’s, Lamela’s, even fucking Sanchez)) were more use than the bench Ange has been given right now, and when elements of that dissipated Poch wasn’t consistent and was sacked.
Yeah, as do I, and if he continues with the counterintuitive selections and weird game management and we continue with the type of performances we’ve seen more recently, and worsening metric traits then I’ll be fine with him getting the tin tack, just as I was with Poch for similar reasons - despite similar personnel issues.
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Its probably worth factoring in that Ange took over arguably the most defensive negative team in the league and turned us into the most naive attacking team in the league almost overnight. Its gone from one extreme to the other! I remember one of our line ups under Conte was against liverpool at home and we played a back 5 with Emerson and Davies at wing backs, 3 CDMs (think it was skipp hojbjerg and bentancur) with Perisic and Kane up top. It was the most defensive line up I've ever seen in my life. Literally less than a year later, we rocked up to the Etihad with no centre backs (the 2 wing backs from a year earlier played there) and we went gun ho!
We became the polar opposite team over the course of one Summer pre season. But this non stop attacking and not been allowed look at the clock is not sustainable. I'm hoping that Ange has done this overly attacking approach just to move as far away as possible from what we once were! However, he does need to slowly bring defensive awareness and game management back into our game so that we can become a more complete team
We became the polar opposite team over the course of one Summer pre season. But this non stop attacking and not been allowed look at the clock is not sustainable. I'm hoping that Ange has done this overly attacking approach just to move as far away as possible from what we once were! However, he does need to slowly bring defensive awareness and game management back into our game so that we can become a more complete team
Q and A in The Athletic today:
Tom — As a suffering Tottenham fan, can you tell me with data or tactics that things are going to get better? Thanks!
Thank you for your question, Tom!
On a team level, there is a lot to like about Spurs. They rank high in many metrics, including chance creation, finishing, pressing and duel success. As the graph below shows, only Liverpool and City have a higher expected goal difference per 90 than Spurs this season — it’s a good indicator within the underlying numbers that they are creating chances at a healthier rate at which they are conceding them.
Their organisation from defensive set pieces has improved too, though there are still issues to iron out in that area, while Dominic Solanke has helped them find an edge in finishing chances and leading an effective press.
Are Tottenham improving at defending set pieces this season?
With Ange Postecoglou’s style, though, they can be left quite open if they lose the ball and they do that far too often (sixth-most in the league this season), especially in midfield, where Postecoglou seems a little unsure of who out of his options are best-suited to play at the base. Transition defence is definitely an area to work on and teams seem to enjoy success from cutbacks after getting in behind their full-backs.
On an individual level, every game seems to present avoidable personnel errors. Spurs seem most vulnerable in the 15 minutes either side of half-time (eight goals conceded; the same as 20th-placed Southampton). Perhaps, smarter game management in those periods will help balance out the inconsistency. However, as some of our readers have pointed out, every top-four contender bar Liverpool have shown weaknesses that can be exploited, so there are reasons to be optimistic about Spurs in the larger context too.
Tom — As a suffering Tottenham fan, can you tell me with data or tactics that things are going to get better? Thanks!
Thank you for your question, Tom!
On a team level, there is a lot to like about Spurs. They rank high in many metrics, including chance creation, finishing, pressing and duel success. As the graph below shows, only Liverpool and City have a higher expected goal difference per 90 than Spurs this season — it’s a good indicator within the underlying numbers that they are creating chances at a healthier rate at which they are conceding them.
Their organisation from defensive set pieces has improved too, though there are still issues to iron out in that area, while Dominic Solanke has helped them find an edge in finishing chances and leading an effective press.
Are Tottenham improving at defending set pieces this season?
With Ange Postecoglou’s style, though, they can be left quite open if they lose the ball and they do that far too often (sixth-most in the league this season), especially in midfield, where Postecoglou seems a little unsure of who out of his options are best-suited to play at the base. Transition defence is definitely an area to work on and teams seem to enjoy success from cutbacks after getting in behind their full-backs.
On an individual level, every game seems to present avoidable personnel errors. Spurs seem most vulnerable in the 15 minutes either side of half-time (eight goals conceded; the same as 20th-placed Southampton). Perhaps, smarter game management in those periods will help balance out the inconsistency. However, as some of our readers have pointed out, every top-four contender bar Liverpool have shown weaknesses that can be exploited, so there are reasons to be optimistic about Spurs in the larger context too.
Q and A in The Athletic today:
Tom — As a suffering Tottenham fan, can you tell me with data or tactics that things are going to get better? Thanks!
Thank you for your question, Tom!
On a team level, there is a lot to like about Spurs. They rank high in many metrics, including chance creation, finishing, pressing and duel success. As the graph below shows, only Liverpool and City have a higher expected goal difference per 90 than Spurs this season — it’s a good indicator within the underlying numbers that they are creating chances at a healthier rate at which they are conceding them.
Their organisation from defensive set pieces has improved too, though there are still issues to iron out in that area, while Dominic Solanke has helped them find an edge in finishing chances and leading an effective press.
Are Tottenham improving at defending set pieces this season?
With Ange Postecoglou’s style, though, they can be left quite open if they lose the ball and they do that far too often (sixth-most in the league this season), especially in midfield, where Postecoglou seems a little unsure of who out of his options are best-suited to play at the base. Transition defence is definitely an area to work on and teams seem to enjoy success from cutbacks after getting in behind their full-backs.
On an individual level, every game seems to present avoidable personnel errors. Spurs seem most vulnerable in the 15 minutes either side of half-time (eight goals conceded; the same as 20th-placed Southampton). Perhaps, smarter game management in those periods will help balance out the inconsistency. However, as some of our readers have pointed out, every top-four contender bar Liverpool have shown weaknesses that can be exploited, so there are reasons to be optimistic about Spurs in the larger context too.
