absolutely not sustainable.
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Tactics TFC's Tactical Autopsy Thread
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absolutely not sustainable.
I've distilled this a bit further to try to distribute credit for each goal appropriately:
- The xG for each shot is shared between the shooter, assister and secondary assist (1/3 each). For example if the shot has an xG of 0.3, then these 3 players get attributed with 0.1 xG each for creating the chance.
- If these was no secondary assist recorded then the shooter and the assister share 1/2 of the xG each
- If there was no assist or secondary assist then the shooter gets full credit for the xG.
- For penalties, the xG credit is shared between the player who was awarded the foul, and whoever passed it to them (ie no xG credit for the penalty taker)
- The players taking the shots get additional "Shooting Delta" scores which is the difference between their goals scored and the xG of their shots (including penalty shots).
- Summing the xG credit and the shooting delta gives a total goal contribution. Adding this up for all players should roughly equal the teams total goal count (excluding own goals)
- For a "tap-in" with an xG of 0.9, the shooter, assist and secondary assist each get 0.3 xG. If the goal is scored, the scorer gets an additional 0.1 but if they miss then they get minus 0.9.
- For a penalty which has an xG of 0.79, the player drawing the foul gets 0.395 xG, as does the player that passed to them. If the penalty-taker scores they get 0.21 but if they miss they get -0.79.
Spurs so far this season (minimum 300 minutes played):
| Player | xG created | Shooting Delta | Total Goal Contribution | xG Created per 90 | Goal Contr per 90 |
| Son Heung-min | 2.90 | 1.20 | 4.10 | 0.45 | 0.64 |
| Yves Bissouma | 0.33 | 1.74 | 2.07 | 0.07 | 0.47 |
| James Maddison | 2.94 | 0.61 | 3.55 | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| Dejan Kulusevski | 2.02 | 0.60 | 2.62 | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| Dominic Solanke | 3.04 | -1.17 | 1.87 | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| Brennan Johnson | 2.09 | -0.62 | 1.46 | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| Pape Matar Sarr | 1.38 | -0.72 | 0.66 | 0.33 | 0.16 |
| Pedro Porro | 0.88 | 0.29 | 1.17 | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| Destiny Udogie | 1.29 | -0.31 | 0.98 | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| Cristian Romero | 1.02 | -0.02 | 0.99 | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Micky van de Ven | 0.70 | -0.21 | 0.49 | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur | 0.66 | -0.42 | 0.24 | 0.13 | 0.05 |
- Son leads the way in chance creation, and his shooting has outperformed his xG, which puts him top of the list.
- Bissouma's two goals from two shots (with a combined xG of 0.26) gives him a huge shooting delta and moves him up to second place, but generally would expect that to come back to the field over the course of a season.
- Son, Maddison, Solanke, Kulusevski, Sarr and Johnson have created nearly 2/3 of our xG between them.
| Player | xG Created | Shooting Delta | Total Goal Contribution | xG Created per 90 | Goal Contr per 90 |
| Son Heung-min | 9.97 | 4.95 | 14.92 | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| Richarlison | 4.80 | 1.45 | 6.25 | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| Dejan Kulusevski | 7.38 | 3.34 | 10.72 | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| James Maddison | 8.30 | -2.44 | 5.86 | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| Timo Werner | 3.32 | -1.71 | 1.61 | 0.37 | 0.18 |
| Pedro Porro | 5.87 | 0.04 | 5.91 | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| Cristian Romero | 2.60 | 1.57 | 4.17 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Emerson | 0.92 | 0.80 | 1.72 | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| Pape Matar Sarr | 3.31 | -0.48 | 2.83 | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| Destiny Udogie | 3.12 | -0.48 | 2.64 | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur | 2.02 | -0.91 | 1.11 | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| Brennan Johnson | 7.56 | -5.30 | 2.26 | 0.33 | 0.10 |
| Pierre Hojbjerg | 1.70 | -0.66 | 1.04 | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| Yves Bissouma | 1.90 | -1.42 | 0.48 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| Ben Davies | 1.56 | -1.34 | 0.22 | 0.13 | 0.02 |
- Werner, Maddison, Johnson, Son, Richarlison, Kulusevski and Porro created nearly 2/3 of our xG between them
- Shooting (underperforming their xG) moved Maddison, Werner and Johnson down the list
And Spurs 2022/23:
| Player | xG created | Shooting Delta | Total Goal Contribution | xG Created per 90 | Goal Contr per 90 |
| Harry Kane | 13.40 | 8.63 | 22.03 | 0.35 | 0.58 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur | 2.08 | 2.73 | 4.81 | 0.12 | 0.29 |
| Pedro Porro | 2.23 | 1.19 | 3.42 | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| Son Heung-min | 8.30 | -0.09 | 8.21 | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| Ryan Sessegnon | 1.92 | 0.36 | 2.28 | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| Pierre Hojbjerg | 4.19 | 1.98 | 6.17 | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| Matt Doherty | 1.03 | 0.26 | 1.28 | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| Dejan Kulusevski | 4.28 | -0.55 | 3.73 | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| Ben Davies | 2.03 | 1.02 | 3.05 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Ivan Perisic | 4.34 | -1.64 | 2.70 | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| Richarlison | 3.57 | -2.29 | 1.28 | 0.32 | 0.11 |
| Emerson | 1.81 | 0.35 | 2.16 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| Eric Dier | 1.56 | 0.34 | 1.90 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Yves Bissouma | 0.72 | -0.17 | 0.55 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Cristian Romero | 2.10 | -1.46 | 0.64 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| Clement Lenglet | 1.48 | -0.95 | 0.53 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| Davinson Sanchez | 0.46 | -0.64 | -0.18 | 0.05 | -0.02 |
Premier League leaders this season (300 minutes minimum):
| Player | xG Created | Shooting Delta | Total Goal Contribution | xG Created per 90 | Goal Contr per 90 |
| Luis Diaz | 2.62 | 2.24 | 4.86 | 0.42 | 0.78 |
| Son Heung-min | 2.90 | 1.20 | 4.10 | 0.45 | 0.64 |
| Cole Palmer | 4.11 | 1.96 | 6.07 | 0.43 | 0.63 |
| Chris Wood | 1.95 | 3.46 | 5.41 | 0.22 | 0.61 |
| Mohamed Salah | 4.38 | 1.20 | 5.58 | 0.45 | 0.57 |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 2.36 | 3.12 | 5.48 | 0.24 | 0.55 |
| Harvey Barnes | 1.98 | 0.96 | 2.94 | 0.37 | 0.55 |
| Erling Haaland | 4.01 | 1.14 | 5.14 | 0.40 | 0.52 |
| Matheus Cunha | 2.63 | 1.70 | 4.33 | 0.30 | 0.49 |
| Noni Madueke | 2.20 | 1.45 | 3.65 | 0.29 | 0.48 |
| Bukayo Saka | 3.33 | 0.55 | 3.88 | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| Yves Bissouma | 0.33 | 1.74 | 2.07 | 0.07 | 0.47 |
| James Maddison | 2.94 | 0.61 | 3.55 | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| Liam Delap | 1.00 | 2.62 | 3.62 | 0.13 | 0.46 |
| Dwight McNeil | 1.90 | 2.32 | 4.22 | 0.19 | 0.43 |
| Amad Diallo | 1.31 | 0.53 | 1.84 | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| Yoane Wissa | 1.55 | 0.57 | 2.12 | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi | 2.23 | 1.01 | 3.24 | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| Evanilson | 2.71 | -0.03 | 2.68 | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| Danny Welbeck | 2.38 | 1.18 | 3.56 | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| | | | | |
| Facundo Buonanotte | 1.72 | 0.60 | 2.32 | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| Ismaila Sarr | 1.96 | -1.10 | 0.86 | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| Abdul Fatawu Issahaku | 1.17 | -0.39 | 0.78 | 0.22 | 0.14 |
I added the last 3 because they have relatively good numbers in poorly performing teams.
Why do you think that?
Maddison with the highest TV (Threat value) in two areas of the Pitch. Kulusevski not featured. Bentancur and Son feature.
View: https://x.com/dataanalyticepl/status/1857356915799478315?s=46&t=IomICbZIqZC4FsH907qgfw
View: https://x.com/dataanalyticepl/status/1857356915799478315?s=46&t=IomICbZIqZC4FsH907qgfw
Vicario faced the fewest shots:
View: https://x.com/datamb_/status/1856826254366052506?s=46&t=IomICbZIqZC4FsH907qgfw
View: https://x.com/datamb_/status/1856826254366052506?s=46&t=IomICbZIqZC4FsH907qgfw