Based on long- (season, 10 match), mid- (5 & 7 match), and short-term (1 & 3 match) form relative to upcoming opponents, I have us finishing with 73-76 points.
I've calculated the relative expected points for each remaining match. e.g., our 5-match form is WLWWW = 12/5 = 2.4, while our next opponent (AVL) is WWLLL = 6/5 = 1.2, giving a relative form of 2.4 - 1.2 = +1.2. I've calculated this for each parameter (1, 3, 5, 7, 10, and Season Form) to account for teams under- or over-performing their short vs mid vs long form. For final points estimations I've used arbitrary cutoffs of <-0.5 = Lose, >+0.5 = Win, -0.5 to +0.5 = Draw. The table below has the average, median, and maximum of 1-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 10-match and season form predicted results.
| Matches Remaining (H,A) | Current Points | Predicted Points
(Average) | Predicted Points
(Median) | Predicted Points
(Max) | Remaining Fixtures (mid-term form, pts) |
CHE | 9 (5,4) | 59 | 78 | 78 | 86 | SOU,LEE,CRY,ARS,WHU,EVE,WOL,MUN,WAT
(1.34) |
TOT | 8 (4,4) | 54 | 73 | 73 | 76 | AVL,BHA,BRE,LEI,LIV,BUR,NOR,ARS
(1.33) |
ARS | 10 (4,6) | 54 | 71 | 70 | 76 | CRY,BHA,SOU,CHE,MUN,WHU,LEE,NEW,EVE,TOT
(1.46) |
WHU | 7 (3,4) | 51 | 64 | 64 | 68 | BRE,BUR,CHE,ARS,NOR,MCI,BHA
(1.41) |
MNU | 8 (3,5) | 51 | 64 | 63 | 68 | EVE,NOR,LIV,ARS,BRE,BHA,CHE,CRY
(1.46) |
I have not accounted for home/away matches or goal difference in the predictions, nor have I used predicted outcomes to adjust forecasting (i.e., assumes form is fixed as of today).