We definitely ain’t getting top 4 guys. Think we need to take a step back for a second and not get too over excited here. Yesterday was a breath of fresh air and I am excited as anyone to see Bale come back to form in the last 4 games, but for us to get top 4, we need to rely on pretty much 3/4 teams dropping a huge amount of points, plus us winning most of our remaining games. With our dogshit defence, this isn’t happening. We are finishing 6th or 7th at best unfortunately. Our piss poor form the last 2 months is our downfall. Europa league though is a different story and this is by far our best chance of winning a trophy, plus getting into the CL. The league cup to come too obviously.
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We had a run of 5 games where 10 from 15 points would be realistic / good. So far 3out of a possible 6 points
Woolwich away the next definite 6 pointer. Guideline to see where we are after that weekend.
Woolwich away the next definite 6 pointer. Guideline to see where we are after that weekend.
Why is it going to take 10 wins from 13?
Win our game in hand and we're 3 points from 4th.
Our goal difference is better than West Ham, Liverpool and Everton. Leicester are in utter free fall.
All we need to do is win that game in hand and then win a game more than the teams between us and 4th.
I'd rather have the points on the board than a game in hand. Theres no guarantee of a win. Other teams are going to pick up wins so something like 8 wins I don't personally think will be enough. Everton have a game in hand over us too and are ahead of us so they have 2 games in hand over teams we have 1 over.
I don't disput that, but you're suggesting we need to go on a league winning run of form to get 4th when we're not miles off it and no one else is on that run of form but City.
It's chaos from 3rd down at the moment. Leicester are proving it only takes an injury to see a team plummet. Liverpool have been on a worse run of form than us I think.
West Ham have been doing a good job of beating the teams from mid table down and fluked a win against us. Their next run of 7 games are Leeds, Man United, Woolwich, Wolves, Leicester and Newcastle and Chelsea. That's far from an easy run of games for various reasons.
We've got Fulham, Palace, Woolwich, Villa, Newcaslte and United. Neither us nor West Ham will take max points, It'll be about who takes the most.
Despite horrific concerns, we have one of the best goals against collumns (I can't bring myself to say best defence) and that can continue of Mourinho can pick this weekends back 4 more often than not.
Evertons next 7 are Southampton, WBA, Chelsea, Burnley, City, Palace and Brighton. Again, they'll drop points.
Chelsea have Liverpool, Everton, Leeds. WBA, Palace, Brighton and West Ham.
No one out of these teams is going to go on a crushing run of good form. People will take points off eachother, people will drop points where you don't expect it.
Nothing can be taken for granted this season. No one expected Liverpool to be so bad, West Ham to be 4th at this stage of the season, Villa not to be feeding from the bottom 3 etc etc etc.
Leicester have won 3 of their last 4 league games, hardly free fall. That said, I do reckon they'll fall out of the top 4, just like they did last season.
This.
I feel top 4 is gone but what I want to see is out and out attacking, go for it football. Not parking the bus at fuckin Fulham (no disrespect Scotty)
If Bale keeps putting in those kind of performances and joining Son and Kane, that front three is absolutely lethal and will terrify anyone.
Its just the defence and keeper that worry me, but every other team around us have their own problems, Everton and West Ham haven't done it before so could fade under pressure and struggle to get over the line, remember how hard it was for us to mentally break that top 4 glass ceiling and how close we came on a couple of occasions before we cracked it. Liverpool's issues are well documented. Leicester looks like the most probable side to fall away with their injury issues and I just don't think they are that good on paper.
For me Chelsea and Man Utd have two spots nailed on, and with City winning the title at a canter it leaves one spot to be contested by 4-5 clubs.
It's possible but will require us to go on a massive winning run now.
Its just the defence and keeper that worry me, but every other team around us have their own problems, Everton and West Ham haven't done it before so could fade under pressure and struggle to get over the line, remember how hard it was for us to mentally break that top 4 glass ceiling and how close we came on a couple of occasions before we cracked it. Liverpool's issues are well documented. Leicester looks like the most probable side to fall away with their injury issues and I just don't think they are that good on paper.
For me Chelsea and Man Utd have two spots nailed on, and with City winning the title at a canter it leaves one spot to be contested by 4-5 clubs.
It's possible but will require us to go on a massive winning run now.
City have won the league and I reckon it’s between Liverpool and United for 2nd and 3rd , 4th place will be between us , Everton , Chelsea and Leicester , think West Ham will fall away now. Take it one game at a time but hopefully we can close the gap by winning our game in hand against a Villa.
You just need to pick a number the teams ahead of could reach. Are they likely to reach 68 points?
Are West Ham and Chelsea averaging 2points a game? Nope. Not even close. Think 66 points a realistic target to aim for.
So for Spurs 8 wins 3 draws 2 defeats could do it. As long as no other teams go on a big undefeated run. Chelsea currently look most likely to do that based on form last 6 games.
Personally think with our hectic schedule of games we won’t do it. We can expect some key injuries or key players to get fatigued.
And finals quarter / semi finals etc just add to the mental workload as well.
Matt1882
Yes they look weaker lately, let's hope it continues
We've left ourselves too much to do, there is basically no margin for error. We have to win the next 2 and then probably take at least 4 pts from Woowich and Villa. Even if we put Everton, Villa and West Ham to one side I don't see how we finish above 2 of Leicester, Liverpool and Chelsea.
I agree with this as it is all very well beating a poor side at home but reality is that we are bound to blow out again before the season ends.
Add into the mix the large number of games we have played and the likes of hojberg flogged to death every game and it's a fair assessment that too four isn't happening.
You are assuming we win the game in hand. We’ve only won 11 of 25. By that rate, there’d be a 44% chance of that game in hand being a win.
We are averaging 1.56 points per game. So you could estimate we are likely about 4.5 points back of 4th.
If you say “if we win our game in hand, we’d be 3 points back of 4th” then ok that’s fine.
Your post said “basically we are 3 points from 4th” and that’s just wrong as explained above.
This is very basic logic.