Tottenham Hotstats

[hibberni]

Our conversion rate is actually pretty high at the moment. Fourth highest in the league. Hardly average. Any higher and honestly I would be worried that it was bound for a correction.

We've scored pretty well and reliably this season. Some results haven't gone our way and we've dropped points but that happens in football and I think you're splitting hairs to find a culprit.

Football is a low scoring game, and therefore a game of volatile results and upsets. You can't look at a single result e.g. Newcastle and form from that alone that we have problems converting chances.

Patterns do exist, in the way that teams play and the sort of chances that they create. Shot statistics have actually done pretty well in predicting the state of the league thus far this season. For one, they suggested early on that Spurs this season have been taking a lot of quality shots, and converting them at a respectable rate. And true enough we've been climbing the table. It also suggested while Man U was still at the top of the table that they were taking relatively few shots, generally of poor quality.

Conversion ratios are notoriously fickle. You ask where we would be with a higher conversion ratio, and true enough the answer would probably be Leicester. But their conversion rate does not look sustainable. Coupled with an average defense, the shot statistics predict that they'll slowly start to fall off.

Honestly, they're far more reliable as a projection of future results than traditional "picks" by commentators based on whatever dull platitude can be produced to offer an excuse for why one team is ranked higher than another, to fill some space on a newspaper or to fill some broadcasting slot with mindless shit masquerading as inside knowledge.

Hi Viri,
Can you show me where you got your data from re our conversion rate please?
I posted a source for this (for all the EPL teams) in the Everton thread which shows us 5th from bottom.

 

[Mr S Pippo]

They are trying to predict the future beyond just using points per game extrapolated over the remainder of the season......nothing wrong with trying to apply some logic to that, as we all know the league won't finish exactly as it is today.

I do get it, I just detest it. We need to take each game as it comes and not look forward to games weeks ahead. It gives me bad vibes.

 

[Juicy Sushi]

It's not about not liking the result. I'd like it to say we are top with 100% chance but that wouldn't be realistic either. It's not even about Spurs, if the season was different and it was Liverpool where we are you'd have to agree they have more than a 7% chance of winning it at this stage. From a likelihood point of view you can't give 89% of the probability to two teams that are barely ahead of anyone and have been very inconsistent. The inconsistency alone has to spread the probability about more. I just don't think it is realistic if it has such a strong prediction for two teams when it is as close as it is. Maybe it's not a manager thing, btw, it was just my first thought. I would expect a calculator like this to produce a less strong indication half way through the season because the data doesn't support it imv.

The way Michael does it is he runs a "simulated season" around a million times, and then goes with what's most probable, based on the most common results of those simulations. So, 7% of the time, we'd win the league.

I wouldn't agree with anyone having any % chance at this stage. We think it's close because at this moment it is. 3 weeks ago, it wasn't, and 3 weeks from now it might not be. It's improbable because in general, the way we've played is a solid top 3 finish, not a title win. If we kicked on and improved our play further over what it has been up to now, the probability may increase, although the question would be if it was sustainable. Leicester was playing like a title winner for about 8 weeks. But it wasn't sustainable, and their Icarus dream is beginning to melt before our eyes.

We've consistently played like a very good team all year. But not like a title winner (aside from one very odd statistic which, if we maintained it, would be essentially unprecedented in England). With 19 games to go, we still have a chance, and I'm daring to dream, but I also think we're very much a long-shot.

 

[Juicy Sushi]

Hi Viri,
Can you show me where you got your data from re our conversion rate please?
I posted a source for this (for all the EPL teams) in the Everton thread which shows us 5th from bottom.

Yeah, Objective Football's data has us distinctly mid-pack (27%) as of 19 games.

Our Shots on Target difference on the other hand, is insane.

 

[Juicy Sushi]

No on every level. States do not tell you how teams have play, they are cold mathematical numbrs reflecting half truths. A miss hit shot is seen as a shot on target. A ref/ linesmen getting it wrong does not appear on the states! When a team scores from a ref error or is given off side incorrectly, the game result ccan change. If we win the PL , who gives a toss how we played. Law of averages is , it when all evens itself out over a season . You get a decision this week, you dont next. States come from USA sport. We have embraced this nonesence-sorry. States are cold facts, no feelings or understanding of the game and can say anything you wish.

Then why post in this thread? To try and "talk sense" to us? The reality is that things don't generally "even out" over a season. That's not the way probabilities generally work. If we win the PL, I won't care how we did. But we haven't won it yet, and I do care about how we play right now, as that will dictate how good a chance we have of winning the league. And certain "stats" do actually have a great deal to say about how we, and other teams, play.

 

[Mr S Pippo]

Then why post in this thread? To try and "talk sense" to us? The reality is that things don't generally "even out" over a season. That's not the way probabilities generally work. If we win the PL, I won't care how we did. But we haven't won it yet, and I do care about how we play right now, as that will dictate how good a chance we have of winning the league. And certain "stats" do actually have a great deal to say about how we, and other teams, play.

Ok.

 

[VirginiaSpur]

Hi Viri,
Can you show me where you got your data from re our conversion rate please?
I posted a source for this (for all the EPL teams) in the Everton thread which shows us 5th from bottom.

Conversion rate 15/16 - Premier League - Transfermarkt

According to this we have the highest percentage of shots on goal in the league, and the fourth highest conversion in the league.

61% on target, 16.3 % conversion rate.

 

[Juicy Sushi]

Conversion rate 15/16 - Premier League - Transfermarkt

According to this we have the highest percentage of shots on goal in the league, and of those shots on goal the fourth highest conversion in the league.

61% on target, 16.3 % conversion rate.

From Whoscored, I get 33 goals from 120 shots on target, and 286 total shots. Which would be a total conversion rate of 11.5% and a shots on target conversion % of 27.5. Whoscored separates the 4 times we hit the post from the shots on target, Transfermarkt does not, it seems.

 

[hibberni]

Conversion rate 15/16 - Premier League - Transfermarkt

According to this we have the highest percentage of shots on goal in the league, and of those shots on goal the fourth highest conversion in the league.

61% on target, 16.3 % conversion rate.

Ok....
That position number is our position in the league table i.e. fourth.
The conversion rate is Goals/Total Shots
My reference to a poor conversion rate only considers Shots on Target i.e. 33/124 or 26.6%.
Now if I can refer you to my post in the Everton thread (#65), there my source figures our conversion rate (SoT/goals scored) at 27.3% which puts us at
fifth from bottom.

 

[Mr S Pippo]

we all know the league won't finish exactly as it is today.

I hope so?

 

[VirginiaSpur]

Ok....
That position number is our position in the league table i.e. fourth.
The conversion rate is Goals/Total Shots
My reference to a poor conversion rate only considers Shots on Target i.e. 33/124 or 26.6%.
Now if I can refer you to my post in the Everton thread (#65), there my source figures our conversion rate (SoT/goals scored) at 27.3% which puts us at
fifth from bottom.

No, actually it's not.

Take another look, and you will notice that Everton is not actually second placed in the league, nor is Liverpool currently fighting against relegation.

I was climbing out of bed when I posted that last one, so I was a little lost in the head, so I did in fact misstate that the statistics are tracking shots on target. You are correct, the number is tracking total conversion. My bad.

But I still think you're fooling yourself. Take a deeper look at you will realize that our shooting statistics are damn near identical to - and splits the difference between - Manc City (37 out of 122, 30%) and Woolwich (33 out of 132, 25%), the agreed upon title contenders. Sure, Leicester's shooting has been more efficient (37 goals out of 92 shots, 40% conversion), but it's also a prime reason why Leicester has almost zero chance in the actual title hunt. Goal scoring at conversion rates high above the norm is rarely sustainable, and strongly reverts to the average. They're not taking many shots, and they're scoring an unusually high number of them, which means that their statistics are inherently volatile and should even out over a longer period. It really has been a fairy tale season, but those facts coupled with their defense conceding the most goals out of any club in the top 10, and I do think they'll come crashing back down to earth in the second half. They'll still finish in a great position off of the back of their first half performances, so there will still be enough of a story there to talk about.

Honestly, our statistics are more like a title-winning side. We're physically taking more shots and in the process making our own luck, a la City and Woolwich. We've dropped points to dodgy ties, but that's the game of football and the underlying statistics always suggested that we would be climbing the league, and we have.

On shot statistics, Michael Caley really does extraordinary work. Made me believe in statistics again, because frankly most of the work that people do with statistics is shit.

 

[hibberni]

Viri I was referring to the position number in the club column not on how you view the table depending on one's use of the ascending/descending arrows.
The A'nal ratio differs from my source who has their conversion rate at 31.1% otherwise both sources are basically in agreement with the two clubs, Leic & ManC, that you referred to
above.
I completely agree with your third para, not the 'I think you're fooling yourself' I hasten to add.
I spent 29 years trading and marketing a whole variety of financial instruments for an American blue-chip. I know the mean reversion theory works.
My original post, based on the data from Objective Football, has us falling behind the curve on conversion rates and I simply pointed out that maybe Poch was just
as concerned about that fact as for getting cover for HK.
I would be very disappointed if he wasn't.
p.s. re Michael Caley I don't subscribe to Twitter or Facebook but I do follow any references to him on the blog.

 

[Juicy Sushi]

No, actually it's not.

Take another look, and you will notice that Everton is not actually second placed in the league, nor is Liverpool currently fighting against relegation.

I was climbing out of bed when I posted that last one, so I was a little lost in the head, so I did in fact misstate that the statistics are tracking shots on target. You are correct, the number is tracking total conversion. My bad.

But I still think you're fooling yourself. Take a deeper look at you will realize that our shooting statistics are damn near identical to - and splits the difference between - Manc City (37 out of 122, 30%) and Woolwich (33 out of 132, 25%), the agreed upon title contenders. Sure, Leicester's shooting has been more efficient (37 goals out of 92 shots, 40% conversion), but it's also a prime reason why Leicester has almost zero chance in the actual title hunt. Goal scoring at conversion rates high above the norm is rarely sustainable, and strongly reverts to the average. They're not taking many shots, and they're scoring an unusually high number of them, which means that their statistics are inherently volatile and should even out over a longer period. It really has been a fairy tale season, but those facts coupled with their defense conceding the most goals out of any club in the top 10, and I do think they'll come crashing back down to earth in the second half. They'll still finish in a great position off of the back of their first half performances, so there will still be enough of a story there to talk about.

Honestly, our statistics are more like a title-winning side. We're physically taking more shots and in the process making our own luck, a la City and Woolwich. We've dropped points to dodgy ties, but that's the game of football and the underlying statistics always suggested that we would be climbing the league, and we have.

On shot statistics, Michael Caley really does extraordinary work. Made me believe in statistics again, because frankly most of the work that people do with statistics is shit.

He's done good work, but we're not quite title winners yet. Our shots on target numbers are nuts. We get a much larger % of our shots on target compared to our shots than the competition:



This isn't unprecedented. But the only teams in England with a similar profile over a full season were the 2012-13 Spurs and 2009-10 Wigan.

 

[Chucklevision82]

 

[Totti]

Just shows how poor Chelsea have been. They bloody won the league, which includes performing at the start of the year. I'm willing to bet they're not too far behind Man Utd and Liverpool. It's rather impressive from Woolwich to be fair as well, lets hope that's not the case at the end of the 2015/2016 season.

 

[Chucklevision82]

Just shows how poor Chelsea have been. They bloody won the league, which includes performing at the start of the year. I'm willing to bet they're not too far behind Man Utd and Liverpool. It's rather impressive from Woolwich to be fair as well, lets hope that's not the case at the end of the 2015/2016 season.

Chelsea on 61 points...

http://www.skysports.com/football/n...gue-table-burton-edge-out-Woolwich-at-the-top

 

[Juicy Sushi]

Chelsea on 61 points...

Who tops the 2015 league table? Burton edge out Woolwich at the top

After the New Year's Day Massacre, Jose locked it down and Pulis'd his way to the title. We entirely broke them.

 

[VirginiaSpur]

He's done good work, but we're not quite title winners yet. Our shots on target numbers are nuts. We get a much larger % of our shots on target compared to our shots than the competition:



This isn't unprecedented. But the only teams in England with a similar profile over a full season were the 2012-13 Spurs and 2009-10 Wigan.

Absolutely. We are not title contenders, not yet.

But shots on target and shots inside the box are not figures that revert to the mean of random chance, they are a product of the way that a team plays and the type of chances that they create. We create chances at a high rate in good positions; not necessarily combined at a high enough rate for the title, but at an impressive rate nonetheless. When we were straggling in the league that still remained true, even when some people were actually calling for Poch's head at an early stage of this season. And even if our chances do average out, it is still favorable. Moving "down and to the right" into the average range, we're still comfortably outside the range of expected returns that we'd comfortably fall into a predicted 3rd place finish.

And we've nearly scored as many goals in the first half of this season of this season alone to match Wigan 09-10, so that's firmly out of the picture.

 

[Boltonspur]

According to BBC
"Tottenham boast the most accurate attack in the Premier League this season, having hit the target with 58.37% of their attempts. Star striker Harry Kane has scored 30.3% of their 33 top-flight goals. And they have the meanest defence - conceding just 15 times."

I really have no idea about stats other than they can be made to tell you what you'd like to hear/see. Lies, damn lies etc... As you were geeks













:dierpochhug:

 

[hibberni]

Absolutely. We are not title contenders, not yet.

But shots on target and shots inside the box are not figures that revert to the mean of random chance, they are a product of the way that a team plays and the type of chances that they create. We create chances at a high rate in good positions; not necessarily combined at a high enough rate for the title, but at an impressive rate nonetheless. When we were straggling in the league that still remained true, even when some people were actually calling for Poch's head at an early stage of this season. And even if our chances do average out, it is still favorable. Moving "down and to the right" into the average range, we're still comfortably outside the range of expected returns that we'd comfortably fall into a predicted 3rd place finish.

And we've nearly scored as many goals in the first half of this season of this season alone to match Wigan 09-10, so that's firmly out of the picture.

Totally agree....
Here's out shot distribution for the season so far from WhoScored....

If one looks at the player heat maps for individual games so far you will see HK, Eriksen, Lamela & Alli all spending most of their time in the centre of the attacking third.
Also here's the total shot distribution for Ligue 1 season 2013/14...

which confirms where the prime shooting zones are.
Yep, I know that's obvious but it doesn't happen unless the transition into the attacking third is designed with the objective of creating the chances in front of goal.