Excerpt from Juicy's post above:
"A huge aspect of Tottenham’s season isn’t just how well they have been playing and how good their numbers look, but how different it looks from the chaos of last season. Throughout last season they were a 52% shots team with a slightly lower on target rate. Par stuff that maintained across each half of the season. Based on any analysis, it looked like major challenges were ahead, but with a mass clear out and what now looks like a well bonded and youthful squad, Tottenham have recorded a huge leap in their underlying numbers with a particular focus on their on target rates. The good part here (volume) lands in the realm of strong sustainable quality but there’s a side order of caution alongside (rates). Let’s take a look.
Their overall shot ratio has increased from 52% to 57%, which is impressive in itself but their shot on target ratio has gone from 50% to 66%, a huge increase. Teams posting rates that high, in fact everyone posting 64% and above, have gone on to qualify for a top four slot on 10/10 occasions since 2009-10 and understandably, the components reflect well too. Tottenham’s “For” rate ranks 10th/140 and their “Against” rate 11th/140. There has been some debate around where Tottenham’s true rate lies, and the most likely answer appears to be somewhere in between, but towards which end may well determine whether they are hovering around third or fourth or pushing for more.
Where further caution comes in is in the rate in which all their shots are landing on target. Tottenham’s all shot numbers are fine, good but not spectacular, and the divergence between these and those on target is revealing. Over 42% of Tottenham’s shots have landed on target, a full 2% higher than any other team in the sample and the difference in this rate and that of their opposition’s rate (29%, so a full 13 percentage points) is significantly higher than the previous highest: ten percentage points. As such, there is a huge likelihood that Tottenham’s rate will revert as the season wears on, but it is worth noting that often when a metric such as this skews so positively, it’s reversion will likely still maintain it at a high rate.
This advantage Tottenham are enjoying may reduce but should not disappear. Indeed it is more likely that any skepticism borne of noting such positive skews is likely only to see effect longer term, and depending on how these metrics tally come season’s end, 2016-17 may well be a more interesting test of the “new” Tottenham’s true ability. Often it takes a long time for these things to shake out. Chelsea 2014-15 are the prime example here. The positive skew they enjoyed prior to Christmas was enough to give them a basis for league victory and the some of the reversion that took place over the second half of the season was predictable, that they cut the cord on the bungee this year was a step well beyond and envisaged by none.
Regardless, this is strong team within this league and the foundations have been laid for long term prosperity, something that looked to be a year or more away back in August."
IMO shots on target should be expected to mean revert less than goal scoring conversion. There are fewer variables involved working against it, as opposed to goal scoring which by definition only builds on those same variables.
At the end of the day, we're creating strong goal scoring opportunities, and that's primarily based on the level of play that we can sustain. A good example of this would be yesterday. We hit the fucking bar twice! Neither of those then could technically be written down as a shot on target, but sweet jesus we're talking about the difference of an inch, here!
We could start taking more shots, in which case I do think we'd see some mean reversion, because specifically that would mean that we are being less choosy and disciplined in our shot taking.
Mick Cooper
in the match thread, this was a repeat of the Newcastle game (apart from the score line).
(that's us on the right)
