The guy who produces these watches more games than both of us put together, and the xG model he may be working from could very well include all of the things you're mentioning. It's just a matter of how much data he has on hand.
Just because he watches more games doesn't mean much. It means he's a statistician who likes football. What standard of football did he play? what coaching qualifications does he have? Is he registered with the PFSA? If so, what level has he achieved?
Again, football is not about data and numbers. It's about the body, the mind and the ball. Intuition is paramount. Intuition can't be reasoned with numbers.
You could have all the data in the world pointing in one direction and football will piss completely into your chips and give you a completely different result.
If it were like that, football betting would be easy.
I used the phrase dangerous areas, the actual radar specifically tracks key passes into the box. So, his passes into the box that become shots are the "dangerous passes".
There, you've proven that this ''dangerous area'' to consitute a ''dangerous pass'' is nonsense. What about the passes, say, from Alderweireld that releases a counter which achieves a goal? That wouldn't constitute a dangerous pass in this regard despite it being a catalyst of a goal.
Which brings me back to Messi. He's playing deeper, collecting balls off the defence and playmaking. Those ''dangerous passes'' will go down due to that. That doesn't mean it's the beginning of the end. It means his role is different and other players are sharing the creative load, especially in the final 3rd.
If you disagree, fine, but your arguments as to why are unconvincing to me.
Your argument that football is black and white through data analysis is even less so. The stats used, no matter how great and exhaustive, are completely arbitrary to what the user and creator feel is important.
Scouts have done without them being the primary indicator of a good player for over 100 years. They used their eyes to see what a good player was, and still do.
To limit Lionel Messi to statistics, which, in the most important areas, are still the best in the world, is silly imo.
I mean, how did Messi get scouted for Newell's Old Boys at 6 years old, or any young player scouted at that age, in the first place? It wasn't intimate dissecting of statistics. It was watching a player.
"When you saw him you would think: this kid can't play ball. He's a dwarf, he's too fragile, too small. But immediately you'd realise that he was born different, that he was a phenomenon and that he was going to be something impressive."
ochsulk:
