My take away is that the last few seasons have been a mess.... Explicable considering the fixture mayhem ever since Covid hit.
Next season will probably be no better thanks to the mid-season WC fiasco.... 2023/24 will likely be the first stable season followed by a full summer off in 4/5 years.
The total points required for the past 2 seasons to reach top 4 has been a bit lower since Covid. Something like 4-6 points, so around 2 fixtures to turn from loss/draw into wins.
We had 48 pts after 28 games. 20/21, 19/20 and 15/16 being the seasons it was enough at that stage in the last 7.
*21/22. Woolwich. (54 points after 28 games)
*21/22. Tottenham. (48 pts after 28 games)
4th placed teams:
20/21. Chelsea. 67 points (48 pts after 28) ~~ 19 points from their final 10 games.
19/20. Chelsea. 66 pts. (45 after 28) ~~ 21 pts from final 10
18/19. Tottenham. 71 pts. (60 after 38) ~~ 11 pts from final 10 (haha)
17/18. Liverpool. 75 pts. (57 after 28) ~~ 18 pts from 10
16/17. Liverpool. 76 pts. (55 after 28) ~~ 21 from 10
15/16. Man City. 66 pts. (48 after 28) ~~ 18 from 10
14/15. Man Utd. 70 pts. (53 after 28) ~~ 17 from 10
With us being the exception to the rule in 18/19 where we fell arse over face backwards into the top 4, the final 10 game run ins see most sides pick up 17-21 points from their last 10 fixtures.
Highest top 4 point totals since 08/09;
13/14 (79 pts)
16/17 (76 pts)
17/18 (75 pts)
Those 3 seasons have been exceptionally difficult to make top 4. So although Covid does appear to have slightly reduced the top 4 threshold, the seasons before were a bit exceptional.
Woolwich came 5th in 16/17 with 75 points - they won the league in 97/98 with 78 points!
United won the league in 96/97 with 75 points!