The Race For 7th

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In Love Hearts GIF by SpongeBob SquarePants
 

View: https://twitter.com/BBCMOTD/status/1774723385999725042?t=qUJCx76aBi-LG901DSYeXw&s=19

I'm not sure this is totally true 🤔

Not sure we'd be 'sunk' without Son.


It's hilarious. Based on most media commentary we likely deserved about 3 points in total this season.

Do something enough and it's not a fluke

Do any other team get called out for having good players like its a bad thing?

"Well Tottenham wouldn't as good if you took out their best players" No shit!
 
Anyone with any knowledge of this season would know that playing Luton is not a routine win. They are in every game. Usually blow up in last ten minutes but they really give it a go.
We had stacks of chances which doesn’t normally happen.
Plus I don’t think spurs fans would say Son has been our best player. Vicario and VDV , Porro would all be higher.
 
So for fun I built a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season, with purely random results (33.33% win, loss, draw) for every game regardless of ability, ie throw the form guide out the window.
Assumed no further FFP points deductions or successful appeals.

Results after 100,000 simulations:

Probability of finishing top 7: 99.9% ie not safe yet!!!

Probability of finishing top 10: 100%. While each team from 10th through 14th can catch us in theory, they can't all catch us because they have to play each other.

Probability of finishing above Woolwich: 4.4%
Probability of finishing above Citeh 6.2%

Probability of finishing below United: 5.4%
Probability of finishing below Chelsea: 0.4%

Probability of finishing top 5: 93.5%
Probability of finishing top 4: 39.1%
Probability of finishing top 3: 7.8%
Probability of finishing top 2: 2.1%

Probability of Spurs finishing first: 0.4%

COYS!
 
So for fun I built a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season, with purely random results (33.33% win, loss, draw) for every game regardless of ability, ie throw the form guide out the window.
Assumed no further FFP points deductions or successful appeals.

Results after 100,000 simulations:

Probability of finishing top 7: 99.9% ie not safe yet!!!

Probability of finishing top 10: 100%. While each team from 10th through 14th can catch us in theory, they can't all catch us because they have to play each other.

Probability of finishing above Woolwich: 4.4%
Probability of finishing above Citeh 6.2%

Probability of finishing below United: 5.4%
Probability of finishing below Chelsea: 0.4%

Probability of finishing top 5: 93.5%
Probability of finishing top 4: 39.1%
Probability of finishing top 3: 7.8%
Probability of finishing top 2: 2.1%

Probability of Spurs finishing first: 0.4%

COYS!
Jim Carrey Chance GIF
 
Interestingly, since West Ham at home in December (which was the end of our dreaded run of form following suspensions and injuries).

We've picked up 29 points from 15 games. Only bettered by Liverpool (36), Man City (34) and Woolwich (32)

If only eh?
 
So for fun I built a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season, with purely random results (33.33% win, loss, draw) for every game regardless of ability, ie throw the form guide out the window.
So tried a more realistic (but still random) simulation based on each team's average home/away goals scored/conceded per game so far this season. For example for tonight's WH-Spurs clash this approach predicts 39% win for Spurs, 28% draw and 33% win for WH. Which for such a simple model is surprising close to the Opta supercomputer prediction (39.9 / 27.4 / 32.7%)

Updated season predictions:

Probability of finishing top 7: 99.9% ie not safe yet!!!

Probability of finishing top 10 9: 100%. While each team from 9th through 14th can catch us in theory, they can't all catch us because they have to play each other, and the chances of them all beating the top teams as well is vanishingly small based on form to date.

Probability of finishing above Woolwich: 4.4% 0.8%
Probability of finishing above Citeh 6.2% 2.5%

Probability of finishing below United: 5.4% 5.2%
Probability of finishing below Chelsea: 0.4% 0.3%

Probability of finishing top 5: 93.5% 95.3%
Probability of finishing top 4: 39.1% 41.3%
Probability of finishing top 3: 7.8% 2.9%
Probability of finishing top 2: 2.1% 0.4%

Probability of Spurs finishing first: 0.4% 0.05% (one in 2000, still well above zero!)

COYS!
 
Interestingly, since West Ham at home in December (which was the end of our dreaded run of form following suspensions and injuries).

We've picked up 29 points from 15 games. Only bettered by Liverpool (36), Man City (34) and Woolwich (32)

If only eh?
We battered them as well. Flukey rebound and a bad back pass threw it away. That Coufal is crap. Need to get at him Timo.
 
We've got to play Newcastle away Chelsea away Liverpool away Woolwich at home and man city at home. We are going to be lucky to get 5 or 6 points from that.
 
We've got to play Newcastle away Chelsea away Liverpool away Woolwich at home and man city at home. We are going to be lucky to get 5 or 6 points from that.

You haven't been paying attention, they're the sort of matches we relish because they will give us space to play:


View: https://twitter.com/Lilywhite_Rose/status/1774724357081768280?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1774724357081768280%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

 
We've got to play Newcastle away Chelsea away Liverpool away Woolwich at home and man city at home. We are going to be lucky to get 5 or 6 points from that.
Newcastle defence is wide open. Dummett is back playing. 2 centre backs out. Chelsea not up to much. We thrive in matches against teams who attack us.
 
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