The Race For 7th

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We could lose 6 from 8 IMO. Chelsea aren’t a million miles away, those cunts are always a threat
win tomorrow and we are CL IMO

That might be a bit premature but a win tomorrow certainly puts us in drivers seat for both 4th and CL - with CL possibly from 5th but not something which should distract us from trying to finish as well and as high as possible
 
4 wins means we will have 69 points. No other team below us can beat that except Man Utd who can possibly score a maximum of 72 points.
Man United play Liverpool tomorrow.
 
Here is Villa's potential schedule:

EL QFThu 11 Apr 2024Aston VillavLille
PREMIER LEAGUESu 14 Apr 2024WoolwichvAston Villa
EL QFTh 18 Apr 2024LillevAston Villa
PREMIER LEAGUESu 21 Apr 2024Aston VillavBournemouth
PREMIER LEAGUESa 27Apr 2024Aston VillavChelsea
EL SFTh 02 May 2024
PREMIER LEAGUESa 04May 2024BrightonvAston Villa
EL SFTh 09 May 2024
PREMIER LEAGUESa 11May 2024Aston VillavLiverpool
PREMIER LEAGUESu 19May 2024Crystal PalacevAston Villa
EL FINALWe 22 May 2024


4Aston Villa321760
5Tottenham301857
 
Here is Villa's potential schedule:

EL QFThu 11 Apr 2024Aston VillavLille
PREMIER LEAGUESu 14 Apr 2024WoolwichvAston Villa
EL QFTh 18 Apr 2024LillevAston Villa
PREMIER LEAGUESu 21 Apr 2024Aston VillavBournemouth
PREMIER LEAGUESa 27Apr 2024Aston VillavChelsea
EL SFTh 02 May 2024
PREMIER LEAGUESa 04May 2024BrightonvAston Villa
EL SFTh 09 May 2024
PREMIER LEAGUESa 11May 2024Aston VillavLiverpool
PREMIER LEAGUESu 19May 2024Crystal PalacevAston Villa
EL FINALWe 22 May 2024


4Aston Villa321760
5Tottenham301857

I see 3 wins there minimum. Puts them on 69 points if they lose the others.

Will be super tight. May even come down to GD
 
4 wins means we will have 69 points. No other team below us can beat that except Man Utd who can possibly score a maximum of 72 points.
Man United play Liverpool tomorrow.
forget United. Liverpool will whack them tomorrow. They never control a game. It’s all off the cuff. Great when it comes off but usually it doesn’t..
 
So for fun I built a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season

Ok first place is getting tough after the latest wins for the top 3 teams. :ange-hmm:

But these is hope! Simulation shows that if we were to win all our remaining games 3-0 we would have an 0.07% chance (1 in 1500) of the top 3 all stumbling and Spurs nicking first place.

On the other hand if we were to lose all our remaining games 3-0 we would still have a 46% chance of finishing top 7.

With more realistic Spurs results we're pretty much 50/50 to finish 4th or 5th. Statistically predicted top 10 stands at: Woolwich, Pool/City, Spurs/Villa, Newcastle, United/Chelsea/Spam, Brighton.
 
for me its tight for us to get 4th
I can see 3 wins but not sure about the other games
just not sure what team turns up for each match
if Ange can get the players up for it in other 4 games maybe we can pick up extra 4 points
 
Here is Villa's potential schedule:

EL QFThu 11 Apr 2024Aston VillavLille
PREMIER LEAGUESu 14 Apr 2024WoolwichvAston Villa
EL QFTh 18 Apr 2024LillevAston Villa
PREMIER LEAGUESu 21 Apr 2024Aston VillavBournemouth
PREMIER LEAGUESa 27Apr 2024Aston VillavChelsea
EL SFTh 02 May 2024
PREMIER LEAGUESa 04May 2024BrightonvAston Villa
EL SFTh 09 May 2024
PREMIER LEAGUESa 11May 2024Aston VillavLiverpool
PREMIER LEAGUESu 19May 2024Crystal PalacevAston Villa
EL FINALWe 22 May 2024


4Aston Villa321760
5Tottenham301857

Brentford did us a huge favour. We just need to capitalise. Forest will come park the bus so it’s going to be a grind unless we get the early goal, which we never get at home.
 
Don’t think Villa are good enough. Simple as that. We will be 4th. Looking forward to the games v top 3. We play best against the best.
If we win the next two, and assume Villa lose their next game, the pressure is almost off us and we can go and attack the tricky games. Will likely be 3 ahead with a game in hand (assuming Villa lose away)
 
April 7th Spurs v Notts Forest
April 13th Newcastle v Spurs
April 28th Spurs v Woolwich
May 2nd Chelsea v Spurs
May 5th Liverpool v Spurs
May 11th Spurs v Burnley
May 19th Sheffield U v Spurs

Still to be scheduled is game v ManCity which I suspect will be a midweek fixture either before or after our Burnley game in May.
 
April 7th Spurs v Notts Forest
April 13th Newcastle v Spurs
April 28th Spurs v Woolwich
May 2nd Chelsea v Spurs
May 5th Liverpool v Spurs
May 11th Spurs v Burnley
May 19th Sheffield U v Spurs

Still to be scheduled is game v ManCity which I suspect will be a midweek fixture either before or after our Burnley game in May.

Might be before if City get knocked out by Real Madrid, if not, it'll be the second leg of the CL semi finals that week.

Think it'll be 14th May.
 
April 7th Spurs v Notts Forest
April 13th Newcastle v Spurs
April 28th Spurs v Woolwich
May 2nd Chelsea v Spurs
May 5th Liverpool v Spurs
May 11th Spurs v Burnley
May 19th Sheffield U v Spurs

Still to be scheduled is game v ManCity which I suspect will be a midweek fixture either before or after our Burnley game in May.

wins I'm confident about:

today
Woolwich at home
Chavski away
Burnley
Sheff

Newcastle away will be tough and we never get anything at the Dippers on a good day. This time we know we end the game with 9 men and they get at least 1 penalty.
 
wins I'm confident about:

today
Woolwich at home
Chavski away
Burnley
Sheff

Newcastle away will be tough and we never get anything at the Dippers on a good day. This time we know we end the game with 9 men and they get at least 1 penalty.

Newcastle should be the easiest of the next 30 days tbh.

They can't low block successfully, have a Schar and Dan Burn centre back pairing. No Livramento or Trippier. No Joelinton. No Pope. Have to play the likes of Murphy and Longstaff due to injuries

But who knows anymore. Early kick off ain't it? And we don't seem to like those.
 
Newcastle should be the easiest of the next 30 days tbh.

They can't low block successfully, have a Schar and Dan Burn centre back pairing. No Livramento or Trippier. No Joelinton. No Pope. Have to play the likes of Murphy and Longstaff due to injuries

But who knows anymore. Early kick off ain't it? And we don't seem to like those.

Still away at the Barcodes., we owe them one though
 
Newcastle should be the easiest of the next 30 days tbh.

They can't low block successfully, have a Schar and Dan Burn centre back pairing. No Livramento or Trippier. No Joelinton. No Pope. Have to play the likes of Murphy and Longstaff due to injuries

But who knows anymore. Early kick off ain't it? And we don't seem to like those.
I always think the 1230 kick offs dont really get going till second half. Good start by us and we could be cruising.
 
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