The Race For 7th

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SeeSpotRun said:
So tried a more realistic (but still random) simulation based on each team's average home/away goals scored/conceded per game so far this season. For example for tonight's WH-Spurs clash this approach predicts 39% win for Spurs, 28% draw and 33% win for WH. Which for such a simple model is surprising close to the Opta supercomputer prediction (39.9 / 27.4 / 32.7%)

Updated season predictions:

Probability of finishing top 7: 99.9% ie not safe yet!!!

Probability of finishing top 10 9: 100%. While each team from 9th through 14th can catch us in theory, they can't all catch us because they have to play each other, and the chances of them all beating the top teams as well is vanishingly small based on form to date.

Probability of finishing above Woolwich: 4.4% 0.8%
Probability of finishing above Citeh 6.2% 2.5%

Probability of finishing below United: 5.4% 5.2%
Probability of finishing below Chelsea: 0.4% 0.3%

Probability of finishing top 5: 93.5% 95.3%
Probability of finishing top 4: 39.1% 41.3%
Probability of finishing top 3: 7.8% 2.9%
Probability of finishing top 2: 2.1% 0.4%

Probability of Spurs finishing first: 0.4% 0.05% (one in 2000, still well above zero!)

COYS!
Click to expand...
So after midweek results:
Our top 4 chances have firmed from 41.3% to 48.2% (thanks Citeh!)
Chance of finishing above Woolwich / Citeh dropped 0.8->0.44% and 2.5->1.25% respectively
Top 3 / Top 2 chances down to 1.8% / 0.2% respectively
Chance of winning the league has dropped from 0.05% to 0.016% (one in 6000, still not zero)
Not much change to the rest.

COYS!
 
4Aston Villa311759
5Tottenham301857
6Man Utd30-148
7West Ham31-545



SATURDAY 6TH APRIL
Aston Villa15:00Brentford
Wolverhampton Wanderers15:00West Ham United
SUNDAY 7TH APRIL
Manchester United15:30Liverpool
Tottenham Hotspur18:00Nottingham Forest
SATURDAY 13TH APRIL
Newcastle United12:30Tottenham Hotspur
AFC Bournemouth17:30Manchester United
SUNDAY 14TH APRIL
West Ham United14:00Fulham
Arsenal16:30Aston Villa
 
Last edited:
2023-242022-23
17-6-762-4416-5-955-42


"SAME" TEAM+/-SAME GAME+/-
30West Ham United A1-1D10A1-1DBrighton4H2-1W
31Nottingham Forest HH3-1WBournemouthH2-3L
32Newcastle UnitedAA1-6LNewcastle UnitedA1-6L
33Manchester City***HH1-0WManchester UnitedH2-2D
34Woolwich HH0-2LLiverpoolA3-4L
35Liverpool AA3-4LCrystal PalaceH1-0W

"Same" teams we are still plus 10 but we slipped same game to plus 4.
 
LeeMcl said:
As do we.

But assume we have a poor (ish) end of the season and take only 9 points. That means United need to get 19 from 24 available to over haul us. Can’t see that to be honest.
Click to expand...

Yes but we're essentially 4 games ahead. Man Utd have Liverpool at the weekend, likely another loss. That's another game less for them to overtake us. If we beat Forest, that'll be 12 points clear with a +20 goal difference.

This is done. Now let's look up.
 
SeeSpotRun said:
Probability of finishing below United: 5.4% 5.2%
Probability of finishing below Chelsea: 0.4% 0.3%
Click to expand...

After Chelsea 4 - 3 United:
Probability of finishing below United: 5.2% 0.7%
Probability of finishing below Chelsea: 0.3% 0.8%

Probability of finishing top 5: 95.3% 96.5%
Newcastle are the only real threat left to nick 5th.
 
After Villa's draw today v Brentford we are 3 points behind Villa with 2 games in hand and a slightly better GD ..... with our next game tomorrow v Notts Forest at home.

Tricky to see how we could catch 3rd place ManCity or indeed be caught from below by ManU (who also play tomorrow) who are 9 points behind. So it looks like its all about finishing 4th or 5th
 
Spursidol said:
After Villa's draw today v Brentford we are 3 points behind Villa with 2 games in hand and a slightly better GD ..... with our next game tomorrow v Notts Forest at home.

Tricky to see how we could catch 3rd place ManCity or indeed be caught from below by ManU (who also play tomorrow) who are 9 points behind. So it looks like its all about finishing 4th or 5th
Click to expand...
We could easily lose six imo if we capitulate - no way is anyone catching us absolutely not Utd
 
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