God fucking dammit!
People talking about expected points, again. DO YOU PEOPLE NEVER LEARN??
People talking about expected points, again. DO YOU PEOPLE NEVER LEARN??
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- Thread starter Juicy Sushi
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There are plenty of measures of expected points or performance relative to bookies expectations. The bookies think we're finishing 6th.
Based on measures of chance quality, we're one of the 5 strongest teams. We have been lucky thus far in terms of how well our goalies have done, but at the same time, we have not been lucky on finishing our own chances (echoing a pattern of last year). We've also never been able to enjoy a full, healthy squad.
I think we're going to be in the mix, but I also think it's going to be really, really damn close this year at the top.
Based on measures of chance quality, we're one of the 5 strongest teams. We have been lucky thus far in terms of how well our goalies have done, but at the same time, we have not been lucky on finishing our own chances (echoing a pattern of last year). We've also never been able to enjoy a full, healthy squad.
I think we're going to be in the mix, but I also think it's going to be really, really damn close this year at the top.
Tottenham's season takes a spooky turn
Tottenham Hotspur have played eight Premier League matches so far this season with, freakily, the results matching exactly what they achieved in the last campaign. They have beaten Manchester City, Sunderland and Crystal Palace at home – just as they did last season – and drawn at home to Liverpool and away to Everton and West Bromwich Albion as well as beating Stoke City away. The first promoted team they faced last season were Bournemouth, who they beat away – just as the first promoted team they faced this season was Middlesbrough who they also beat away. Their next league opponents are Bournemouth again.
Tottenham Hotspur have played eight Premier League matches so far this season with, freakily, the results matching exactly what they achieved in the last campaign. They have beaten Manchester City, Sunderland and Crystal Palace at home – just as they did last season – and drawn at home to Liverpool and away to Everton and West Bromwich Albion as well as beating Stoke City away. The first promoted team they faced last season were Bournemouth, who they beat away – just as the first promoted team they faced this season was Middlesbrough who they also beat away. Their next league opponents are Bournemouth again.
Realistically, our only likely improvements were against the newly resurgent Toffees (now properly coached), our mirror-opposites (and Mirror-favoured) in Liverpool, and getting a fair rub of the green against Pulis-ball (which like our home match last year, didn't happen).
Not a lot of room for possible improvement, so I dunno if we should take this as spooky, or what should have been the expectation.
A fun issue to think about:
*Hint* The best header of the ball is not who you think it is.
*Hint* The best header of the ball is not who you think it is.
Hoping we are talking about percentages, if so, I'd go for Bale or Ronaldo I guess around the 15-20% mark. (Having said that I hope it's not someone who has only had one header and scored from it).
It isn't. And both Bale and Ronaldo are among the contenders (but not the winner).
It will be some little fucker but fucked if I can think of one, Griezmann?? (Is he small... lol??)
Well, well.
I think Jan just needs to never let the little fucker jump tonight.
Job done! Jan was fantastic tonight, he was worked very hard.
Like the commentator said he looked so tired, it was kinda agony looking at him when the ball is finally out of danger
He didn't look as tired as Chicharito or Kiessling both of whom were blowing out of their backsides (Chicharito, subbed).
22 players worked for their money last night!
Serious insights and serious stats here:
How Spurs and Liverpool’s Presses Differ Plus Other Buildup Bits
How Spurs and Liverpool’s Presses Differ Plus Other Buildup Bits
A couple of good images of the state of things right now, offensively:
Defensively, we've been really good, but also rather lucky. Our keepers have saved our bacon a few times too many this season for me to be entirely comfortable.
As it stands, we're in the top-4 fight with a chance, but no more than that. To be title contenders, we need to make the next step.
Defensively, we've been really good, but also rather lucky. Our keepers have saved our bacon a few times too many this season for me to be entirely comfortable.
As it stands, we're in the top-4 fight with a chance, but no more than that. To be title contenders, we need to make the next step.
What about the opposing keepers saving their own teams bacon ?
Lloris is world Class but that's his job, wonder how many times he was mom ?
MOTM is irrelevant. The only question is how likely or repeatable is what we're doing. Right now, our keepers are saving shots at a rate that is generally described as unlikely to continue. Opposing teams right now convert their shots against us at about 4%. The normal range is 9-10%. While it is possible that we're defensively so good that we're doing stuff that would bring that down, measures based on the quality of chances we concede would point to us having conceded at least another 3 goals. You're not likely to run 50% better than the underlying quality of chances over the long term. Yes, Leicester did last year, but there's a reason they were 5000-1 longshots, and are currently mid-table.