Crystal Palace v. Tottenham Hotspur - Sunday, December 13, 2:15 PM GMT

[sammyspurs]

Yeah that's exactly what I said you clown.

It’s not exactly what you said but it’s basically what your trying to say isn’t it.
Everyone else is apparently capable of putting a run together, so we need to win every game and drawing is a disaster. But not for them. Because they can go on a run.

We haven’t lost since opening day but it’s them that can go on a run and not us.
And when they drop points to each other (which so far we have W3 D1) it’s ok......yep, because of their future run.

And shipping 7 that’s fine, and drawing with Fulham is all good. And it’s ok to lose to Everton two days ago but not four months ago, because they can easily go on a run.

Sounds much better like this

 

[1966]

Football is the ultimate butterfly effect.

Without a simple forgotten throw in or tackle 1 minute earlier, the goal may well not have occurred.

So where’s the cut off point in all this nonsense?

That's one of the big problems with xG as applied to "who deserved to win?". xG only measures the final shot and can't account for that lucky block or huge deflection etc. There are even more advanced stats like xChain for some of that but those are nowhere near ready for primetime.

 

[Deleted member 15314]

Everyone who claimed that we were only 5pts off 6th when he was sacked and it was unfair and Jose hasn’t improved us.

So about half the forum

That was then, and it hardly a controversial view. We could have done better then. There were some real crap performances in there, like the Sheff Utd game, the Norwich games in the league and cup, the Southampton games.

Even up to the Everton game this season, there wasn't much of a clear identity or and flow to our games. It was only really in the second half of the Southampton game things started to click on a more consistent basis.

 

[Deleted member 15314]

It’s not exactly what you said but it’s basically what your trying to say isn’t it.
Everyone else is apparently capable of putting a run together, so we need to win every game and drawing is a disaster. But not for them. Because they can go on a run.

We haven’t lost since opening day but it’s them that can go on a run and not us.
And when they drop points to each other (which so far we have W3 D1) it’s ok......yep, because of their future run.

And shipping 7 that’s fine, and drawing with Fulham is all good. And it’s ok to lose to Everton two days ago but not four months ago, because they can easily go on a run.

Sounds much better like this

We are not UNIQUELY disadvantaged by dropping points at this point. The point I am making is that we can't gloat over one rival failing to take advtange of us dropping points, because another has.

As I see it, there are currently 9 teams that could potentially go on a run on of wins, not all of them will, maybe none of them will. What that means is that we HAVE to go a run of wins at least just as long too. A few points cushion would have been helpful.

 

[sammyspurs]

That was then, and it hardly a controversial view. We could have done better then. There were some real crap performances in there, like the Sheff Utd game, the Norwich games in the league and cup, the Southampton games.

Even up to the Everton game this season, there wasn't much of a clear identity or and flow to our games. It was only really in the second half of the Southampton game things started to click on a more consistent basis.

If you wrote off Jose and claimed he wasn’t a step up from Poch despite going from 14th to 5th, you got fuck all legs to stand on while you complain how sitting top isn’t quite pure enough for you

 

[Deleted member 15314]

If you wrote off Jose and claimed he wasn’t a step up from Poch despite going from 14th to 5th

Don't get me wrong, while I think people who doubted him had reasonable grounds, Poch had to go, there was no other choice.

The verdict was still inconclusive. W were not an impressive side under him last season. We did enough to get to 6th, but we were more like a sputtering Alfa Romeo, than a ever reliable Toyota of 20/21.

Now that we see his image in the team, we can be much more confident in saying that this is the real deal, we're more likely to be Inter or Porto than Man U under Mou.

 

[sammyspurs]

Don't get me wrong, while I think people who doubted him had reasonable grounds, Poch had to go, there was no other choice.

The verdict was still inconclusive. W were not an impressive side under him last season. We did enough to get to 6th, but we were more like a sputtering Alfa Romeo, than a ever reliable Toyota of 20/21.

Now that we see his image in the team, we can be much more confident in saying that this is the real deal, we're more likely to be Inter or Porto than Man U under Mou.

Under the circumstances he took over, any fan claiming the improvement was null and void because he didn’t turn us into Ajax in the 70s within three weeks needn’t speak up now.
Expect nothing, and then it’s still not enough

 

[H4SPURS]

Under the circumstances he took over, any fan claiming the improvement was null and void because he didn’t turn us into Ajax in the 70s within three weeks needn’t speak up now.
Expect nothing, and then it’s still not enough

I rewatched the first two episodes of “all or nothing” last night. You can see it in Poch’s eyes, he was long gone by the footages in the first episode. The looks in the eyes of our players were empty. I couldn’t believe how lost and empty our players looked.

Jose had to come in and take over our squad of players depleted of self believe. He had to figure out what and who he had, layout plans to get us competing for results, get players on his side, and identify gaps/voids to fill and build this squad up. He had to do all of the above while working in one of the busiest periods of the season. On top of that the injuries that Jose has had to deal with throughout that period after taking over.

Our fans who criticize how we looked and how we played last season clearly hasn’t looked at the overall circumstances that we were operating under.

 

[Deleted member 15314]

The looks in the eyes of our players were empty

He was gone as soon as the 18/19 season started. We were a team fuelled by the tension and frustration of the years of near misses, players nearly leaving, lack of transfers etc. I could see the dead look in his eyes you're talking about. Something like hate fucking your crazy GF but the commitment wasn't there.

 

[Ginolaflair]

In any case I thought we deserved to beat Palace but also thought that Fulham were unlucky not to win it

Quietly confident of a win on Wednesday

BTW I still don’t think that Aurier committed a foul which led to their free kick for the goal which was in any case not taken from where the alleged offence occurred

Kevin Friend is a cunt in other words

Think you're right mate...however, it seems like there's a lot of referee blaming sneaking into this forum? Not just yourself but generally. Sure there's been some shit decisions....Eric dier handball etc but I feel like we could have and should have tried to get a second...you never know what zaha can pull out the bag magic wise (or diving wise) so it seems like a risky strategy...admittedly I wasn't fully focussed as have just moved house, internet poor, sky not installed till next week so was watching it on my phone whilst unpacking

 

[Bazali]

Think you're right mate...however, it seems like there's a lot of referee blaming sneaking into this forum? Not just yourself but generally. Sure there's been some shit decisions....Eric dier handball etc but I feel like we could have and should have tried to get a second...you never know what zaha can pull out the bag magic wise (or diving wise) so it seems like a risky strategy...admittedly I wasn't fully focussed as have just moved house, internet poor, sky not installed till next week so was watching it on my phone whilst unpacking

Yes I agree we should have got a second but Palace had a good spell and we should give them some credit

I still maintain though that had their keeper not had a Worldie with three outstanding saves then we would have had a comfortable win but I’m also quietly confident about tomorrow night

 

[bus-conductor]

I 100% support your stance on the own-team perspective bias (which is why my neutral eye was not surprised to find out that Palace led those numbers) but you're overselling what xG models are at this moment in time. The ultimate function of a perfect xG model would be what you say but we're far enough away from that point that 1.5 vs 1.1 is probably still inside the error margin, which is why I don't endorse xG's use as a single-game "who deserved to win?" type barometer.

I really don't think I am (overselling) even above I state all metrics/stats/data, including X/G need to be contextualised.

I'm not selling X/G as the perfect or ultimate or sole indicator of "best" or "better" team, "better team" is such a subjective thing, I like teams to have the ball for example, but that doesn't always mean "better" either, there's where they have the ball, what they do with the ball, territorial superiority etc etc. A team can be "better" tactically, "better" coached but still not out score the opponent or even win the X/G battle.

I'm "selling" X/G as the current best unbiased tool for quantifying and qualifying the chances that are made and allowed.

But it's fair IMO, to use them to highlight success and failure of strategy, tactics etc which are fundamentally all about creating and denying chances.

I don't and never really hear anyone claiming small X/G margins like 1.1 v 1.5 are clear indicators of "the best team". Do you? Because we all understand that 0.4 of a chance isn't a huge margin, especially within the variables (human and other) of football.

 

[bus-conductor]

There are big problems with how people use xG. I'll die on that hill with you.

xG is awesome and I love it: it's the next big leap in quantitative analysis of football, the models are getting better all the time, and it has the potential to solve hitherto intractable problems. Anyone who claims that xG doesn't represent something meaningful doesn't sufficiently understand the underlying principles (which is actually entirely fair enough: they're not simple). The biggest clients of the top football analytics firms, whose major work includes modelling xG, are the clubs themselves! Clubs care about xG, even if some of the fans don't.

I don't think x/g will ever solve all the problems as long as humans are a major component of the equation. And I don't think x/g needs to solve that to be extremely useful either, especially over multiple matches and seasons etc.

Like other metrics, we just need to understand what it is trying to say and contextualise that message.

Regardless, I definitely think we could've used another few years of training and refining the models before we unleashed them so publicly to the point where MOTD is showing xG numbers without necessary context.

I think you are over stating this a little. I have yet to see MOTD actually discuss X/G, at the moment it just pops up as the last graphic whilst the manager explains why his team was robbed.

But it's still more informative than the "shots" and "possession" graphics because it instantly qualifies and informs those other metrics.

Overeagerness with this newfangled idea has hurt football discourse in some ways and actually caused reputational damage to xG itself as a concept. Our models aren't lining up well enough with what people are seeing (often when the people are correct and the models are not) so people are rejecting the models. And I can't say that's completely unfair, even if it is ultimately misguided.

Strange way to look at it (no pun intended) and a slightly contradictory statement.

I think in football a far bigger problem (in terms of the way we assess games) has always been the massive emotional influence over how we perceive what we see, and our ability to use that emotional influence to confirm our bias.

Even neutral punditry has been unfairly skewed towards things like score lines, shots and acrobatic saves.

X/G is at least a big step in the right direction of seeking some kind of "unbiased truth" where one vital facet of football (chances) is concerned.

 

[bus-conductor]

I don't understand your objection (mis-interpreatation?) here.... You don't think people blindly throw XG about in the name of who's the better team?

I think you're seeing it as an attack on stats rather than me pointing the finger at how some people deploy them.

I can't speak for everyone, but I still don't see that many people even using X/G, let alone many people using to it to claim "better team".

Are you talking about on here, on TV, where exactly ?

 

[Admin]

Admin , would you be so kind as to change the thread starter of the Liverpool match thread?

https://thefightingcock.co.uk/forum/threads/spurs-v-liverpool-16-dec-20-00.38681/post-2627948

 

[TimothéeAtouba]

https://thefightingcock.co.uk/forum/threads/spurs-v-liverpool-16-dec-20-00.38681/post-2627948

I just realised that there is a show ignored content on the bottom of the page, thought that link only existed in threads.

 

[Ahab]

I reckon Dele Alli would relish a chance against Liverpool. I'd give him a decent go.
Let the dog see the rabbit!

 

[Andersen]

I reckon Dele Alli would relish a chance against Liverpool. I'd give him a decent go.
Let the dog see the rabbit!

Have you ever had a brag mate around playing fifa? You throw him the controller that doesn't really work. 15 years ago we used to do that and my point is. He is not worthy of that good controller . Benchwarmer now

 

[skyfarer]

I can't speak for everyone, but I still don't see that many people even using X/G, let alone many people using to it to claim "better team".

Are you talking about on here, on TV, where exactly ?

I haven't seen it on MOTD or really "official" outlets, but I think a lot of the recent xG discussion was instigated by Michael Cox's piece in The Athletic predicting us to fade: https://theathletic.com/2244376/202...d-unlucky-but-Woolwich-not-in-false-position/

(I kinda expect our results to drop too, but more because our tactics are better suited to the strong sides than the midtable ones who can low-block but also have enough ability up front to cause us problems, like Crystal Palace. We have to figure out how to be better in possession imo before we can start to predict how we'll fare against teams we "should" be beating, because as you can see with this weekend no one's easily beating anyone.)

Maybe it was already in the air much earlier but since that piece I've seen a lot of stuff on Twitter about xG, a lot making fun of it ("we won the xG! hurray") but some taking it seriously to suggest Brighton's been unlucky, or that Arse *are* improving in xG at least despite their horrendous form.

 

[sammyspurs]

Looks like Chelsea and City’s “run” starts next week then