He's wrong about the R rate too - it's about 1, not 2. And the plan if we're at 50% will be to have testing and other measures in place to minimise the risk further. We may well be talking about 5 Covid positive people in each crowd, who go on infect 5 people, every time there's a 50% capacity home game. Therefore over a season up to about 150 extra cases across a season, resulting in 1 death, as a reasonable estimate.I think your figures are way out on number infected. The last figure I saw was 1 in 2000 meaning 30 people in 60000 although they are only proposing 30000 crowd. if the infective are ill or self isolating then they will not be there. Now I know it only takes 1 infected person to pass it on and the numbers are in clusters rather than averaged throughout the Country. I am relatively old and therefore at risk but a healthy 18 year old should not fear those odds.
The following is from todays papers.
'Some 27,100 people in England are thought to be infected at any one time - 0.05 per cent of the population or one in every 2,000 people - according to the Office for National Statistics, which said today: 'Evidence suggests that the incidence rate for England remains unchanged.'
Is one death a price worth paying for the tax this would generate which can go on the NHS, the people kept in employment who again pay tax but also have better health outcomes personally if not living in poverty, and the positive impact on mental health of having routines and entertainment open up again? It's morbid, but in truth the answer is probably yes - if cases can be kept that low, it will ultimately save more lives than it costs.